Week 16 Development and Demographic Change in Taiwan (3)

Chapter 2: Growth, Distribution, Composition, and Structure
(Summary by HUONG)

In this chapter, the author described and analyzed the temporal and spatial trends attending the increase in population. The changing distribution of population that accompanied the growth of population will be likewise treated. Finally, shifts in population composition and structure will be reviewed.

1. Growth

The growth of Taiwan’s population was illustrated by the growth rates, the distribution of growth rates, the patterns of growth...

It can be seen from the graph a change of Taiwan’s population between 1945 and 2001. The population increased by some 15.74 million with an average ananual rate of growth of 2.41 percent. The annual growth rates have departed significantly from the overall 56 year average, so too have spatial patterns of growth differed from national averages. The high growth areas are selected suburbs of Kaohsiung, Tainan, Taichung and Taipei cities. Moreover, these figures 2.5, 2.6, 2.7 described more detail about the spatial patterns of growth.

2. Distribution

- Density: The figure 2.10 shows the changes in both population and physiological density since 1945 display one very clear trend: as population growth has slowed, so too has the increase in population density. In addition, in both maps (2.11&2.12), there are two region of note. First, in the central mountain area townships have densities at or below the world average. Second, along both coasts are broad bands of townships which have densties between the world and Taiwan averages

- Distribution: In this section distribution is analyzed using four methods: visual examination of maps of population distribution, Lorenzs curves and Index of Dissmilarity, center of population, and settlement classfications.

· Maps of population distribution

Population distribution for the beginning and end years of this study are shown in Figure 2.13 and 2.14. several observations can be made. First, as expected, population is not evenly distributed. Second, there appears to be a marked preference for the major population centers and their suburbs.

· Lorenz curves and Index of Dissimilarity

From the graph 2.15, author shows that the population distribution has become increasingly more concentrated over time. The detail of this change are shown in Table 2.1.

· Center of Population

The geographic center of population is analogous to the mean in the measures of the central tendency. In addition, the coordinates of such a fulcrum are determined by summing the weighted population of all the administrative units. This method was used here: a base map of Taiwan was placed over a piece of graph paper with a fine grid and the coordinates estimated from visual approximations of the centers of each city and township. The resulting coordinates were transferred to a map. In 1954, the center of the Taiwan population was located in the southwest corner of Chungliao township, Nantou hsien but in 1995 move to northwestern corner of the Rei-an township, Nantou hsien. The direction of the shift does reinforce the notion that the western coastal plain, and in particular its northwestern section, has evolved as the major focus of population.

· Settlement classifications

The issue of distribution of population across various types of settlements, and especially in urban places, needs to be more formally addressed.

3. Structure

- Demographic structure

Demographic structure and its changes can be reviewed by using three techniques: population pyramids, dependency ratios, and sex ratios.

· Popualtion pyramids

It ia envident that between 1945 and 1998 th population of Taiwan has changed from one similar to a pyramid to one resembling a cartouche. ( Figure 2.19 and 2.20). By the Projected population structure,2020, the Taiwan’s population become older more than. Beside, the spatial distribution of these township was quite varied: along the east and southwestern coasts there were occasional clusters of township. (Figure 2.22, 2.23, 2.24).

· Dependency ratios

Another parallel way to describe and analyze changes in population structure is the set of measures of dependency. Three measure are available: total dependency, the youth index and the pld-age index. Since for Taiwan these three measures do not correlate consistently in either direction or extent, all tree measures will be reviewed. On the othet hand, total dependency has varied spatially in several interesting ways (Figure 2.26& 2.27). the maps of youth index, Figure 2.28 and 2.29, show that in 1963 the areas that ranked high on total dependency were also quite youthful. Similarly, for 1995, the townships on the eastern edge of the central mountains that had high dependency also have a high youth index.

· Sex ratios

- Ethnic structure

Four ethnic gorups are found in Taiwan. In ascending order by populations size they are foreigners, aborigines, Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese. Three aspects of ethnicity was considered here: the origin of population, their size and spatial distribution and the possible demographic implications of ethnicity.

4. Conclusions

Taiwan has experienced major changes in the size, growth rates, distribution, and structure of its population. Some changes, such as aging and increases in sex ratios, are direct results of demographic changes and will result in further demographic changes. All demographic changes have the potential for generating future social problem.

Source:Roger Mark Selya, Development and Demographic Change in Taiwan (1945-1995)